Forex Secret – Currency Pair Reversal Points – Pivot Points

The currency pair pivot point is one among keystones in trading at Forex.

First of all, allow us to introduce the subsequent designations (notions), necessary for the topic .

“High” is that the maximum at the previous day;

“Low” is that the minimum at the previous day;

“Close” is that the price of closing at the previous day.

Generally speaking, there are the three principal criteria.

1. there’s the stock reserve – i.e., the difference between Low and High per the trading session. as an example , as regards GBP/USD pair, this difference can exceed 100 points during a trading day.

2. The reader must also consider the reversal point of the currency pair movement (the pivot point) within the daily trading session. Thus, it’s easy to calculate the possible profit that would be gained by a trader regularly.

3. If “the trend is that the friend” (see Book 1), it’s necessary to figure along the trend direction. Under these conditions, the detection of the trend pivot points can prevent losses that would be conditioned by the subsequent factors

· A change within the trend direction.

· Besides, this conception of the trend pivot points permits us to know when a deal must be opened during a new trend – i.e., within the beginning of the currency pair movement but not within the middle of it. The author especially doesn’t recommend opening a deal at the top of a replacement trend.

Briefly to mention , the skill of detecting the important pivot point is important for the regularly gaining of profit at Forex (for pity, the knowledge of it’s insufficient).

The given system makes the inspiration of the Pivot Points tactics, well-known everywhere the planet .

The pivot point are often calculated consistent with the formula: Pivot=(High+Low+Close)/3

(the designations introduced are submitted above).

After the calculation of Pivot, one can determine the amount of resistance and support consistent with the formulae given below:

R1=2Pivot – Low

S1=2Pivot – High

R2=Pivot + (R1 – S1)

S2=Pivot – (R1-S1)

R3=High + 2*(Pivot – Low)

S3=Low – 2*(High – Pivot)

Here R1, R2, R3 are the amount of resistance; S1, S2, S3 are the amount of support.

Thus, in its essence, the Pivot Points tactics is binary (binomial). That is, subsequent move is that the logical continuation of the previous one. the purpose of reversal (pivot) is that the keystone of this movement. The trend goes on. Subsequently, the purpose of reversal (pivot) of the given trend is being shifted.

Not without a reason all first-rate banks and fund institutions make use of such simple calculations during 50 years and more.

Briefly to mention , this classical tactics of Pivot Points is documented everywhere the planet . However, the appliance of it still couldn’t change the ratio of successful traders to losers (1/20).

Now the reader must attempt to see the drawbacks of the classical method of detecting Pivot Points. The goal is to know the benefits of the Pivot Points technique consistent with Masterforex-V system.

1. How one can detect an appropriate time-frame for calculating the utmost (or minimum) and therefore the price of closing. One must confine mind that Forex market is functioning day each day regularly. That is, in Europe, America and Asia pivots are different under an equivalent conditions. the rationale is that the three variables mentioned (High, Low, Close) are different in various countries.

Let us emphasize again.

Pivot=(High+Low+Close)/3

“High” is that the maximum of the previous day;

“Low” is that the minimum of the previous day;

“Close” is that the price of closing at the previous day.

For instance, one can take a glance at a chart that depicts USD/JPY pair movement during May 22-24, 2006. There it’s clearly depicted that the next-day pivots in Moscow, Tokyo, London and ny would be cardinally different. Evidently, it’s conditioned by the difference in calendar days. Consequently, all the three components of the classical Pivot Points are depicted within the above-submitted High+Low+Close)/3).

Chart 2.4.1. (For view the image see notes in end of article)

The Pivot points are calculated arithmetically. The result’s rather an arithmetic-mean magnitude (as the moving average) than the determining of a true point, after crossing of which the currency logically makes a spurt (jump) towards the other direction.

For instance, the pivot arithmetic-mean magnitude are often adequate to 50% of the recoil. because it is clear , this value can’t be helpful during a flat. what’s more, it can even be harmful within the flat if the recoil could reach 62% and 76%.

For instance, a trader can open a deal at 50%-recoil against the trend. At an equivalent time, the currency at 62%-recoil makes the U-turn (reversal) towards the previous trend continuation.

As an example, the reader can check out Chart 2.4.2. This figure clearly indicates that on June 6, 2006 EUR/USD had fallen from the local maximum at 1.2981 right down to 1.2922. After this, it raised by 76% – up to 1.2962. Further, within the intra-day trend, the currency pair has ascended right down to the purpose 1.2594. Approximately this makes about 400 points.

Chart 2.4.2. (For view the image see notes in end of article)

In addition, the reader must take under consideration the subsequent factors. During each day a currency can cross the Pivot Point towards different directions several times. this is often why the classical Pivot Point can’t be considered a true point, at which deals should be opened.

As an example, allow us to examine EUR/USD pair movement on Flag Day , 2006 (see Chart 2.4.3 – M-15 chart).

To start from the currency pair movement on June 13 2006, the pivot has made (1.2617 + 1.2529+ 1.2545)/3 = 1.2564).

Chart 2.4.3. (For view the image see notes in end of article)

A Pivot must be dynamical. The author states the subsequent . A currency pair can undergo 70-100 points in European trading session. At American session, the pivot must change its value – because the true (real) point of reversal. as an example , it are often the reversal correction beginning of the Pivot previous value. Under such conditions, a trader can close his deals before the start of the reversal in question. Otherwise, a trader can keep it up a deal being opened along the trend further on (a “long-term” deal). this is often possible if the worth wouldn’t “cross” the Pivot towards the reverse (opposite) direction.

Let us examine a chart that depicts GBP/USD pair movement during June 29-30, 2006.

As one can see, the currency pairs have broken through the Pivot Point during the weekly trend. However, these currency pairs haven’t once crossed the pivot point towards the other direction during the session trend – notwithstanding the very fact that these currency pairs have skilled several many points during each day and a half.

Chart 2.4.4. (For view the image see notes in end of article)

Chart 2.4.5. (For view the image see notes in end of article)

In different time frames the pivot must indicate different points. One must distinguish the reversal within the intra-day trend from the reversal within the intra-week trend. Then, again, the trend of duration of several weeks presents the principally different pattern – then on.

However, consistent with the classical approach to Pivot-Points problem, only one value is taken into account – i.e., that of the previous day. Hence, there logically arises the subsequent question. The reversal of which trend does the pivot make? Again, the reader must confine mind that this pivot is calculated consistent with the above-given formula (High+Low+Close)/3 on the previous day.

R. Axel (from Dow Jones Agency) has developed his own technique of the pivot calculation when the amount of the previous day don’t fit into this formula (High+Low+Close)/3. This discrepancy also confirms that the classical method of determining Pivot Points is imperfect.

One can make the subsequent conclusions. The above-given examples clearly illustrate the principal difference between approaches to the notion of Pivot Point as a true point of reversal of currency pairs at Forex. That is, there’s the Forex classicists’ approach and, in contrast thereto , Masterforex-V’s viewpoint. consistent with the latter system, the subsequent procedures must be done.

1. One must calculate the correction and reversal in various TF – to start out from the intra-day session (M15) and up to many weeks (D1). This clearly depicts the difference between the correction and reversal. as an example , the subsequent situations can happen .

· The reversal can occur during the session trend when the currency pair movement doesn’t exceed Pivot during a weekly trend, which is adequate to the weekly session correction but to not the reversal.

· The reversal can occur during the session trend when the currency pair movement does exceed Pivot in weekly trend. it’s the primary sign of the reversal which will occur within the weekly trend.

2. Such correlation between the 2 sorts of trends permits us to try to to the subsequent .

· to realize profit during the session trend.

· to know the duality (binarity) within the direction of the currency pair movement (the continuation or cancellation (abolition) within a session trend or longer sorts of them.

3. The 50%-recoil indicates rather not the trend reversal but quantitative changes in it. Here is implied either the further development of the currency pair movement or the given pair transition to the flat. consistent with Masterforex-V, one must correlate these tendencies with other factors – like the time of movement, correlation between the ally currency pairs and technical levels in various TF, etc.

Now allow us to regard this problem because it is presented in Masterforex-V Trading Academy. Again, one must take a glance at the chart where EUR/USD pair movement during June 5-6, 2006 is depicted. The reader must attempt to detect Pivot Points by himself.

· Pivot Points within the intra-day trend;

· Pivot Points within the weekly trend session.

This information is expedient. Due to it, one can understand the subsequent facts (and make use of them).

1. one can detect the purpose at which the “bear” intra-day trend starts;

2. one can detect the purpose where the start of the “bear” weekly trend are often confirmed needless to say .

3. On can see at what points the trend heavy (strong) corrections – or the trend recoil – could occur.

4. One can understand the conditions for the reversal of the trend and its changing from the “bear” type to the “bull” one. However, this has not happened within the case in question.

5. additionally , a trader must take under consideration the reversal point abolition (failure). Regarding this aspect, one could state during a deal for an extended period.